The Friedman Report
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Maryland Market Intelligence | Week of July 20–26, 2026
Kyle Friedman | Friedman Real Estate Team at eXp Realty
A hyperlocal, data driven weekly market report.
The Story of the Week
This week, the entire spread of Maryland's housing market fit inside one city. On July 24th, a private penthouse atop Harborview Towers in Baltimore hit the market for $4,295,000 two combined penthouses on the 26th floor, over 7,000 square feet, offered for the first time in more than two decades, available only by private appointment. Two days earlier and three miles away, a HUD owned rowhome on N Ellamont Street listed for $5,000, exterior viewing only, sold strictly as is through HUD's foreclosure process.
Same city. Same week. A $4,290,000 gap between the two.
But that's not really this week's headline. The real story: after last week's rebound, Maryland's closings cooled again. Statewide homes sold dropped to 615, down from 680 the week before. Pending contracts fell 11%, from 429 to 382. Mortgage rates climbed for a fourth straight week, hitting 6.58%, the highest level in nearly a year. And while homes that are priced right are still closing right at asking, sellers who don't get the number right the first time are increasingly the ones left sitting.
Two weeks of acceleration, and now a week of the brakes tapping. That's the pattern buyers and sellers both need to understand heading into August.
Maryland in 60 Seconds
FMMI Score
Balanced, Cooling
Homes Sold
Down from 680 last week (-9.6%)
Active Listings
Statewide active inventory
Median Sold Price
Down from $437,950 (-5.2%)
30 Year Rate
4th straight weekly increase
Avg. Days on Market
Up from 28 days
Price Reductions
Down slightly from 1,145
Pending Contracts
Down from 429 (-11.0%)
What the Numbers Really Mean
Three things changed this week:
Rates are now a four week story, not a one week story
The 30 year fixed climbed to 6.58%, its fourth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level since August 2025, according to Freddie Mac. The 15 year followed, rising to 5.96%.
Precision pricing is still winning, but the margin for error shrank
Statewide, closed homes sold at a median of exactly 100% of list price, with the average pulled up to 104.8% by strong performers. Meanwhile 1,101 active listings still carried a price cut this week, a reminder that a meaningful share of sellers are still recalibrating from spring market ambition.
Market Spotlight: Baltimore City & Baltimore County
Baltimore City
Baltimore City's pace actually improved this week, with average days on market dropping from 45 to 41. Closing volume (107 homes) remains the second highest in the state, behind only Baltimore County. This is also where both bookends of the week's price range live: the $4,295,000 penthouse and the $5,000 HUD foreclosure sit in the same city, illustrating just how wide Baltimore City's market really is.
Baltimore County
Baltimore County closed 123 homes this week, down from 156 the prior week, but its pace actually quickened average days on market fell from 26 to 22. Fewer transactions, but the ones happening are moving faster. That combination (lower volume, faster pace) usually points to a tighter, more selective buyer pool rather than a weakening market.
Active
283 listings
Closed
107 homes
Avg. DOM
41 days
Active
234 listings
Closed
123 homes
Avg. DOM
22 days
Market Movers of the Week
$4,295,000
5 beds | 4 full, 2 half baths | 7,362 sq ft | Built 2003
Two combined penthouses on the 26th floor of Harborview Towers, private keyed elevator, seven private outdoor spaces, offered for the first time in over two decades.
$5,000
2 beds | 1 bath | 972 sq ft | Built 1927
A HUD owned rowhome, fee simple (not ground rent), sold strictly as is through HUD Home Store's foreclosure process, exterior viewing only, interior access prohibited pending sale.
Carroll County
19 day average DOM | 34 closings
Garrett County
108 day average DOM | 6 closings
Friedman Heat Map: This Week's County Data
Charles County tied Calvert at 28 days with 27 closings.
Baltimore County remains the workhorse of the fast moving group, no other top 5 county comes close to its 123 closings this week. On the cooling side, Garrett and Caroline are essentially tied for the slowest pace in the state, both averaging well over 100 days.
Week Over Week: How Maryland Compares
The headline: closings, pending contracts, and median sold price all pulled back this week after two weeks of gains, while mortgage rates extended their climb to a fourth straight week. The one bright spot homes that do close are closing further above list price than they were last week.
The Friedman Market Momentum Index (FMMI)
50
BALANCED MARKET, COOLING MOMENTUM
Down from 62 last week
What this means: Maryland shifted this week from "balanced, holding steady" to "balanced, but losing momentum." No single number is alarming on its own, but demand, pace, and rates are all now leaning the same direction.
Demand Score
Down from 65, Closings fell 9.6% and pending contracts dropped 11%, the clearest signs of softening buyer momentum this week.
Seller Strength Score
Down from 55, The average sold to list ratio strengthened to 104.8%, but 1,101 active listings still carry a price cut, keeping this component in check.
Market Speed Score
Down from 75, Average days on market rose from 28 to 31 days, a real if modest slowdown in pace.
Rate Environment Score
Down from 40, The 30 year fixed hit 6.58%, a fourth consecutive weekly increase and the highest level since August 2025.
The Friedman Signal™
📉 COOLING
Three straight indicators closings, pending contracts, and rates moved the wrong direction for sellers this week, while median sold price gave back some of last week's gain. This isn't a downturn; it's a market that ran hot for two weeks and is now catching its breath under the weight of a fourth consecutive rate increase. Watch pending contracts closely next week that 11% drop is the number most likely to show up in closings two to four weeks from now.
Winners & Losers
Baltimore County
Fewer closings, but faster pace 22 day average DOM, down from 26
Carroll & Harford Counties
Both closing in under 20 days on average
Precisely Priced Homes
Median sold to list ratio held at exactly 100%
Statewide Demand
Closings down 9.6%, pending contracts down 11%
Rate Sensitive Buyers
Four straight weekly increases, now at 6.58%
Garrett & Caroline Counties
Both averaging well over 100 days on market
One Thing I'd Do This Week
🏠 If I Were Buying
Move on the reduced price pool now. With 1,101 active listings already carrying a cut and pending contracts falling, there's real negotiating room but a fourth straight rate increase means that leverage has a shelf life.
🏷 If I Were Selling
Price at the $415,000 statewide median reality, not the $437,950 you might have expected two weeks ago. Pending contracts are down 11%, buyers have more selection, and ambitious pricing is the fastest way to end up in next week's price reduction count.
📈 If I Were Investing
Baltimore City remains the deepest, most liquid market in the state, 283 active listings and 107 closings, with pace actually improving to 41 days. Watch the HUD and foreclosure pipeline here; the $5,000 Ellamont Street listing is a reminder that below market entry points still exist for patient, well capitalized buyers.
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Kyle Friedman
Owner, Friedman Real Estate Team at eXp Realty
Phone
443-789-3101
Website
Address
8115 Maple Lawn Blvd, Suite 350, Fulton, MD 20759
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